If you’re considering Investment Banking or Selling Your Company, now really may be the best time. Here’s some insight from Clare Zemple from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:
Clare Zempel remains bullish on economy despite slow growth.
“Four years after the official end of the Great Recession, and despite a stock market that continues to rise, investors still fret that another economic downturn is near.
Part of this hypersensitivity is due to the fact that the last recession was particularly nasty, but also world and U.S. economic growth never rose to the level of producing healthy job markets and really solid prospects for the economy,” said Clare Zempel, principal at Zempel Strategic in Fox Point, and former chief economist and chief investment strategist at Robert W. Baird & Co.
So investors know that a “stiff wind” from Europe or further slowing in China, for example, could cause a relapse, he said.
One of the best ways to gauge the risk of recession is to study the relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates, Zempel said. Every time since 1955 that the yield curve has inverted — which happens when short-term yields rise above long-term yields — there has been a recession within about a year, he said.
If yields changed at the same pace they did leading up to the last recession, the yield curve would invert in January 2015, Zempel said. That would mean the next recession would start in 2016 after the election, he said. Many factors could change that date, but this much is clear:
The risk appears to be zero of the yield curve inverting this year or next year”
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